An importer launching birch water in a new market should not start by trying to guess an impressive annual sales number.
A workable forecast begins with what can already be verified: the importer’s distribution network, existing partners, number and type of potential points of sale, target channels, market preferences and product format.
When demand is still uncertain, I usually recommend starting with a focused pilot. Depending on the partner and the market, this can mean one to five pallets, one or at most two flavours, and placement in a limited number of priority outlets.
Initial sell-through data then provides a much stronger basis for planning the next order.
Start With the Distribution Network, Not the Number of Bottles
When a potential importer approaches me, one of my first questions is not:
“How many pallets would you like?”
I first want to understand the business behind the forecast.
Who are their existing partners?
Who do they already supply?
How many points of sale can they realistically reach?
For example, if a company forecasts 50,000 bottles in the first year, I consider that a substantial volume. Whether I regard it as realistic depends on the company behind the number.
An established importer or distributor with a strong network, existing customers and positive references may have a credible basis for such a forecast. A smaller company may also be able to support significant volumes if it has strong distribution relationships.
There is no automatic formula in which a certain number of outlets equals a certain number of bottles.
Every importer and every market has to be evaluated individually.
The Market Also Determines the Product Mix
Volume cannot be planned separately from the product itself.
Before recommending a first order, I look at the country, local taste preferences and the channels in which the product will be sold.
The optimal packaging, assortment and launch approach may differ between health food retail, supermarkets, cafés, wellness locations and spas.
Packaging matters. Depending on the market and channel, glass or cans may be more appropriate. The same applies to flavours.
For a new market, I prefer to narrow the initial assortment rather than launch too many variations at once.
Based on my experience with birch water and the information provided by the importer, I help identify which product format and flavours are most suitable for the first test.
When Demand Is Unknown, Use a Pilot to Learn
If the importer has no reliable sales history for birch water, I usually recommend a pilot instead of trying to predict the entire first year.
A typical pilot can be approximately one to five pallets, depending on the partner and market, with one or a maximum of two flavours.
If sales per outlet are still unknown, the product can first be placed in a limited number of selected test locations.
The purpose is simple: obtain real market information.
Instead of asking:
“How many pallets will we sell in this country this year?”
the importer can first find out:
“How does this product actually perform in the intended sales channel?”
That information is much more useful when planning the next commercial decision.
A Pilot and a Large Commercial Order Require Different Planning
The amount of information I need from a partner also depends on the size of the intended order.
For a pilot of a few pallets, the priority is choosing the right product, packaging, channels and test locations.
If a partner is discussing a much larger commercial volume, I need a clearer picture of the expected order quantity and the timing of the next shipment because these factors affect supply and production planning.
An established distributor with a strong network may therefore be ready for a larger launch, while a company entering a new category may benefit more from testing first.
After the First Pilot Order: How Do You Decide What Comes Next?
The first order should not be evaluated only by asking whether the product “sold well.”
The purpose of the pilot is to generate information that can improve the next commercial decision.
After the first products have been on the market for approximately 30 to 60 days, I would look at several indicators.
Sell-through by outlet
How much of the delivered stock has actually moved through the selected points of sale?
Total sales alone can be misleading. It is more useful to understand how the product performs at outlet level.
Units sold per outlet
Comparing sales between individual locations helps identify whether performance is broadly consistent or concentrated in only a few strong outlets.
This can influence whether the next order should support wider distribution or remain focused on the best-performing locations.
Performance by SKU and format
If two flavours or different formats were tested, the importer should compare their performance rather than automatically reorder the same assortment.
One SKU may clearly outperform another.
That information can be used to simplify the range and concentrate the next order on the products that are gaining the strongest market acceptance.
Performance by sales channel
A product may perform differently in health food retail, supermarkets, cafés or wellness locations.
If several channels were tested, the next order should reflect where the strongest commercial response is actually occurring.
Stock remaining and expected time to sell through
The importer should also understand how much stock remains and how quickly it is likely to move.
This is important because the next order should be placed early enough to maintain supply without creating unnecessary inventory.
The objective is not simply to increase the second order.
The objective is to make the second order better informed than the first.
If sell-through is strong across the selected locations, the importer may decide to increase volume, add points of sale or expand the range.
If performance is mixed, it may be better to keep the next order close to the original volume while concentrating on the strongest outlets, channels or SKUs.
If performance is weak, increasing volume is usually not the first solution. The importer should first understand whether the issue is product selection, channel fit, consumer expectations, pricing, placement or insufficient support at the point of sale.
This turns the first order into a practical market test rather than a one-time shipment.
What an Importer Should Prepare Before Discussing Volume
Even without reliable first-year sales data, an importer can give the supplier useful information.
Before discussing volumes, I would want to understand:
Target market — where the product will be launched.
Existing distribution network — partners and customers the importer already supplies.
Potential points of sale — how many and what type.
Sales channels — health food retail, supermarkets, cafés, wellness, spa or other channels.
Product direction — suitable packaging and likely flavours.
Pilot scope — where and how the first products could realistically be tested.
This provides a much better basis for discussing supply than an annual sales number without a clear route to market.
The First Forecast Does Not Have to Be Perfect
For a first birch water launch, the purpose of a forecast is not to predict every bottle that will be sold during the next twelve months.
It is to make the first commercial decision reasonable and create enough real information to make the second decision better.
The process can be simple:
understand the distribution network → select the right product and channels → run a focused pilot → review sell-through and channel performance → adjust the assortment and volume → plan the next order
If the first sales are stronger or weaker than expected, the next decision can be adjusted accordingly.
For an importer entering a new market, this is often more useful than committing to a large theoretical annual volume before any real sales data exists.
About the Author
Natalia Schindler is the founder of Belorganic, a B2B supplier of premium organic birch water for international markets under the Absolutely Wild® brand. Belorganic works with importers, distributors and retail buyers evaluating birch water for their markets.